Subscription-based Approach: Key to Ensure Long-term Growth in Telco

Jabbor Kayumov, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Ncell, is a seasoned leader with more than two decades of senior management experience in the telecommunications industry worldwide. Before stepping into his current role at Ncell, Kayumov held leadership positions in some of the largest and most respected names in the telecom industry. His tenure at companies such as Telia, Veon, and Digicel has given him a diverse global perspective on managing telecommunications businesses in highly competitive and rapidly evolving markets. This vast international experience has been invaluable in his ability to navigate the complexities of Ncell’s growth and transformation in Nepal. His knowledge of advanced technologies, operational strategies, and customer satisfaction management has equipped him to oversee large-scale business changes and digital transitions with ease.

Kayumov’s leadership at Ncell has been marked by a series of strategic moves aimed at strengthening the company’s foundation and future. One of his most significant accomplishments in his first 22 months at the helm has been leading Ncell through a successful transition to becoming a 100% Nepali-origin owned company. This shift is a crucial milestone for Ncell, marking a new era of local ownership that brings Nepali leadership to the forefront. This ownership change not only empowers the Nepali people but also aligns with Kayumov’s vision of creating a telecom company that truly represents the aspirations and needs of the Nepali population.

Kayumov’s leadership extends to a complete overhaul of Ncell’s business strategy, ensuring it is in line with the demands of an increasingly digital society. His commitment to creating long-term value for Nepali customers is helping Ncell to not only stay competitive but also to anticipate the future needs of the market, with a strong focus on enhancing the lives of Nepali people.
In a recent interview with HRM, Kayumov reflected how his leadership has evolved over the years. Having previously gained experience in the Nepali market, Kayumov returned with a renewed focus on driving Ncell’s digital transformation. His second stint in Nepal has been marked by a deep commitment to revolutionizing telecom sector of Nepal, innovative customer solutions, and laying the groundwork for the future of 5G. As Ncell moves forward, Kayumov’s leadership will continue to be a driving force, ensuring that the company is well-equipped to meet the evolving demands of the digital age and contribute to the vision of a digitally connected Nepal.

Q. Having served as Ncell’s CEO and Managing Director for nearly two years, how do you assess your tenure thus far?
A. Nepal is not just a place of work to me; it feels like a second home. It is here that I took my first significant professional step, assuming job responsibilities outside of my home country. Since I first joined Nepal’s telecommunications industry as Chief Commercial Officer in 2011, I’ve witnessed a remarkable transformation. At that time, the market was still heavily dominated by voice services, and internet service providers (ISPs) were mainly catering to urban areas. Fast forward to today, and the focus has shifted to data, propelled by the widespread adoption of 3G, followed by 4G, and the expanded reach of ISPs beyond urban and semi-urban areas.

This is my second time working in Nepal, and I consider myself fortunate to be contributing to the same company and brand where I was part of an exciting growth phase. When I first joined, the demand for mobile connectivity exploded following the launch of 3G in 2010. Thanks to the groundwork laid in the early 2010s, the telecom sector experienced a period of rapid growth that lasted until 2017. Now, the industry is undergoing a new shift—the “telco to tech co.” journey, or the digitalization of telecommunications, which is critical for the sector’s long-term sustainability.

As part of this transition, we’ve worked hard to expand 4G coverage nationwide, now reaching 94 percent of the population. This leap not only opens up the benefits of high-speed mobile broadband but also strengthens our position in the data market while broadening our focus on Enterprise Business Solutions beyond traditional mobility services.

This insight led to the introduction of our ‘Sadhain ON’ and ‘Biz Sadhain ON’ initiatives, which represent a bold step towards realizing a 5G future. These services are designed to eliminate unexpected mobile data charges, ensuring our customers never face bill shocks. ‘Sadhain ON’ empowers users to stay connected without worrying about their balance running out, creating a more predictable and user-friendly experience.

Looking ahead, we aim to adopt a commitment-based or subscription-based model, enabling our customers to access voice services at rates up to 8 times cheaper and data services up to 80 times more affordable than the current pay-as-you-go (PAYG) options. This shift represents our commitment to making digital connectivity more accessible and affordable for everyone, while also staying ahead of the evolving technological landscape.

Q. The telecommunications sector has been experiencing a decline in business in recent years. How do you foresee the challenges and opportunities ahead for telcos?
A. Telecommunications is one of the few sectors in Nepal that has managed to keep pace with global developments. It remains a major contributor to the country’s national revenue, with both Ncell and Nepal Telecom consistently ranking among the Top Five taxpayers annually. However, a closer look at recent trends reveals a concerning decline in their tax contributions over the last six years. This downturn mirrors a significant drop in the sector’s revenue—down by 26 percent—and a staggering decline of over 80 percent in profits. Projections suggest that the profitability of telecom companies will continue to decrease unless drastic changes are made. If this downward trend persists, telecom operators will face increasing difficulties in maintaining existing infrastructure and investing in new technologies, which could ultimately harm consumers and further hinder Nepal’s position in the global ICT development index. Evidence of this decline can already be seen in telecom companies’ capital expenditures (CAPEX), which are steadily falling.

Over the past decade, the digitalization of the telecom industry has accelerated at an unprecedented rate. The traditional telco model, relying primarily on voice and data services, is no longer viable for long-term sustainability. To remain competitive, service providers must adapt to the evolving market dynamics and changing customer expectations. While these challenges are significant, they also present valuable opportunities for telecom operators to explore new revenue streams in ICT and digitalization. However, tapping into these new areas requires fresh investments—something that has proven difficult given the current financial outlook of the sector.

Although data demand continues to rise, Nepal still lags behind neighboring countries in terms of digital adoption. Currently, only three out of ten people in Nepal use mobile data, and the average monthly data consumption per user is just 4 GB. In comparison, in India, nine out of ten people are mobile data users, with a per-user consumption of 20 GB. This gap presents a clear opportunity for growth, but it also highlights a pressing need for change. To stimulate industry growth and ensure long-term sustainability, Nepal’s telecom sector must transition to a subscription-based model, such as weekly or monthly data packs. This shift would not only drive revenue growth but also enable reinvestment in cutting-edge technologies like 5G, ensuring that Nepal remains competitive in the global digital economy.

I firmly believe that progress and growth are only possible through change and evolution. Both Ncell and Nepal Telecom must adapt to the new market reality. Having been in the market for over two decades, starting with basic voice services on 2G technology, both companies have experienced a shift from voice-driven to data-driven services. In the first ten years, voice services were dominant, and telecom companies flourished. However, the introduction of 3G and 4G brought about significant changes—data prices dropped, smartphone ownership increased, and the number of data users soared. Simultaneously, international long-distance (ILD) revenues declined, and the rise of over-the-top (OTT) services like messaging apps further eroded core voice revenue. This shift has left telecom providers at a crossroads: their business models must now evolve to remain viable. While the market has shifted from voice-driven to data-driven, yet data revenue has not fully compensated for the decline in voice revenue.

Finally, it is imperative to re-evaluate the pricing models for telecom licenses, ISPs, and spectrum allocation to better align with the current market realities. A modernized approach will not only ensure the sector’s financial health but also support the necessary investments in new technologies.

Q. How can telecommunications companies play a pivotal role in the digitalization drive as envisioned by the government’s policies and programs? How much of their income do telcos like Ncell have to spend on rolling out technologies, technology upgrades, and maintenance?
A. Telecommunications, as the backbone of modern communication, plays a crucial role in driving digitalization by providing the essential infrastructure that powers connectivity, innovation, and transformation. The launch of 3G and 4G has enabled people to access high-speed mobile broadband at affordable prices, significantly enhancing access to digital services—especially in the post-COVID-19 era when the government is increasingly focused on delivering public services electronically. Telecom infrastructure supports key sectors such as e-governance, e-commerce, fintech, and smart technologies, all of which contribute to building a connected, efficient society. Companies like Ncell are not just telecom providers; they are enablers of next-generation technologies like IoT, AI, and cloud computing, serving as the backbone for a truly digital future.

Telecommunications is a capital-intensive industry. Each year, telecom companies must invest at least Rs. 6 billion just to maintain their existing networks. Over the past seven years, with consistent investment and effort, we have expanded 4G coverage nationwide, ensuring that people across Nepal have access to mobile broadband. Unlike many other sectors, the telecom industry typically requires 15-20 percent of annual revenue to be reinvested into infrastructure. However, due to declining revenue, this reinvestment has become increasingly difficult. Despite this challenge, the industry’s capital expenditures (CAPEX) have exceeded profits since 2019, creating an unsustainable financial situation.

Telecommunications is fundamentally driven by technology, and any new investment today has an equipment lifespan of only 5-7 years. Furthermore, we must continuously adapt to rapidly changing technologies, which requires additional investment. After the expansion of 4G—although still underutilized in some areas—the conversation is already shifting toward the next technological leap: 5G. However, the implementation of 5G will require a substantial investment, further stretching the resources of telecom operators.

Q. Given the substantial investment required for 5G technology, how can the collective investment of telecommunication companies be facilitated?
A. Historically, we began with 2G, then 3G, and launched 4G in 2017. Today, the demand for 5G is growing rapidly. To build upon these advancements and deliver real benefits to consumers, substantial investment is required. These investments must be generated from market profits, enabling operators to reinvest in future technologies. More critically, regulatory bodies must ensure that the costs associated with new technologies—including spectrum charges and necessary permits—are set in a way that allows companies to remain profitable while advancing their services.

Technology evolves at a rapid pace—today, we have 4G and 5G, and soon, 6G will be needed. The average lifespan of any new technology is typically five to seven years, after which it becomes outdated.

For 5G, our estimates suggest that deploying this technology in Nepal could require an investment of up to USD 500 million or Rs. 60 Billion by the two operators. To attract such investment, investors must be confident in a secure future and the potential for a reasonable return. Without these assurances, significant resources will not be committed. However, even if it takes five to ten years, Nepal must adopt and utilize 5G technology—otherwise, the country risks falling behind in the global digital race.

At Ncell, we are dedicated to ensuring Nepali consumers have access to the same cutting-edge technologies as the rest of the world. This is why we introduced Sadhain ON, enabling users to stay constantly connected without the fear of unexpected bill shocks. This initiative is a step toward our broader 5G vision and a crucial part of Nepal’s digital future. Ultimately, the success of this new technology will depend on the collective efforts of all stakeholders involved.

Q. Ncell launched Ncell Foundation in September last year for its CSR. It seems Ncell is leading in giving back to society. What would you like to say about it?
A. Ncell has always been dedicated to corporate social responsibility (CSR), and while we have consistently implemented various social initiatives, we formally launched the Ncell Foundation to mark our 19th anniversary. This foundation serves as the driving force behind all of Ncell’s CSR efforts. We see ourselves not only as a company that builds infrastructure, connects people, and creates jobs but also as responsible stewards of society. Our goal is to be a trailblazer in CSR in Nepal, making a lasting impact and staying true to our motto, “Here for You, For Nepali People.”

Over the last two decades, Ncell has contributed more than Rs. 2 billion to CSR activities, positively impacting over 13 million lives, both directly and indirectly. Our efforts have spanned various areas, including education, healthcare, environmental sustainability, disaster response, and the arts and culture. To further amplify our impact, we felt it was important to bring all our initiatives under one umbrella with a unified purpose, which is why we established the Ncell Foundation. Our vision is to create a more inclusive, connected, and sustainable Nepal while contributing to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Foundation’s three core objectives are to support those who need it most, bridge the digital divide, and promote a healthier, more sustainable Nepal.

In celebration of our 19th anniversary, we are implementing 19 social projects across all seven provinces this year, aimed at supporting community development. Beyond these projects, we are also working on additional initiatives that will further benefit communities. As part of our ongoing commitment, we will invest over Rs. 200 million in social causes over the next five years, reinforcing our dedication to making a positive, reaffirming our long-term commitment to Nepali society and people.

Q. Ncell is one of the major taxpayers and contributors to the Rural Telecommunication Development Fund. How effectively is the fund being utilized to expand effective services and minimize the digital divide in the remote parts of the country?
A. Each year, Ncell makes a substantial contribution to the government in taxes and fees, derived from our earnings in the market and from consumers, including payments to the Rural Telecommunications Development Fund (RTDF). As one of the leading taxpayers, we have contributed over NPR 320 billion in taxes since our inception, supporting public financing.

Under the RTDF, telecom licensees are required to contribute 2 percent of their annual revenue, with the government responsible for utilizing these funds to develop, expand, and operate telecommunications services in rural areas. These funds are critical in achieving universal access and bridging the digital divide. While the government has implemented several projects using RTDF resources, many are still in development, delaying the benefits of connectivity for consumers.

Despite the challenging terrain and low business viability, telecom companies continue expanding services in remote areas, often with little immediate return. It is vital that telecom operators receive adequate support from the RTDF when expanding services into such regions. To address this, the government should prioritize updating RTDF utilization rules and streamline the approval process, ensuring that rural and remote communities gain easier access to connectivity. Expanding networks in these areas demand significantly higher investment compared to urban and semi-urban regions, making timely support from the government essential.

Q. How would you like to project Ncell’s next five-year journey in Nepal in terms of business and innovations, considering the evolving landscape of the telecom sector?
A. There is no doubt that the future is digital, and the telecom sector is at the heart of enabling this transformation. With the telecom industry interconnected with every other sector, its potential is immense. The key question is how we, as stakeholders, can fully leverage this potential. As I’ve mentioned, industry has been experiencing a decline in recent years. If this trend continues without intervention, the telecom sector will face significant challenges, which will have a profound impact on the vision of a digital economy, Digital Nepal, and broader digitalization efforts. From the operators’ side, we have already started taking the necessary actions to ensure our sustainability in the market.

Sooner or later, we must adopt a subscription-based model, which has proven successful in other markets, including India. Our projections suggest that if telecom companies transition to a subscription model, the sector could experience a 40 percent growth in annual revenue over the next five years. Conversely, if no changes are made, revenue, profit, and capital expenditure (CAPEX) will continue to decline, customer experience and service quality will suffer, and no new technologies will be introduced to the market. Currently, the combined annual revenue of the two major telecom companies is around Rs. 68 billion. This could rise to approximately Rs. 97 billion by 2028/29, providing companies with the financial stability needed to invest in new services and technologies. This shift would be a win-win for all—customers, the government, and the industry.

There is a common misconception that a subscription model places a greater cost burden on users. In reality, it ensures value for money by offering simplified, affordable service plans for all customers. The industry, in turn, benefits from assured sustainable growth, allowing us to reinvest in technological advancements. Additionally, the government stands to benefit from increased tax revenue, as over 48 percent of customer payments go to the government in the form of taxes and fees.

Regulatory bodies and government agencies, such as the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, are key drivers in shaping the telecom ecosystem. They must facilitate operators’ efforts to stay current and gain access to new technologies. To achieve this, policies and guidelines should be updated to align more closely with global standards.

Q. Ncell has encountered many challenges due to the country’s laws, regulations, and procedural hurdles during its operations. As a foreign investment company, how would you describe the investment climate in Nepal?
A. Investment is a cornerstone of economic growth and prosperity in any nation. As Nepal strives to become a developing country, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays an essential role in capital formation, job creation, and the transfer of technology. To attract FDI, the government must prioritize an ease-of-doing-business approach while ensuring political stability, adequate infrastructure, and a supportive regulatory environment. Investors should be guaranteed fair treatment and confidence in returns through favorable policies. Such investments are instrumental in the socio-economic development of the country.

Ncell entered the market in 2005 when Nepal opened its telecommunications sector to private investment, allowing for an influx of FDI. In just a few years, Ncell’s operations significantly transformed the country’s telecommunications landscape, ensuring widespread access to mobile services—once considered a luxury available only to the wealthy. With the power of mobile technology, even the average Nepali can now pay bills directly from their phones. This is just one example of how Ncell has contributed to reshaping the sector, with similar success stories unfolding across various industries.

Recently, the government introduced a provision that allows Nepali IT companies to invest abroad or open international offices. It has also set an ambitious target to export ICT services worth Rs. 3 trillion in the next decade, recognizing the potential of this sector. To achieve this goal, the government must introduce more flexible regulations, ensuring that companies investing in Nepal can repatriate profits without unnecessary obstacles. We are hopeful that the government will soon amend the Telecommunications Act, making it easier for telecom companies to operate and sustain themselves in the market.

The government must streamline the processes for dividend repatriation and foreign exchange approvals to ensure smooth operations for telecom companies. Furthermore, foreign investors require a level playing field, which, as of now, is not being fully provided.

Q. What message would you like to convey to foreign investors willing to invest in Nepal?
A. Nepal is a land of limitless opportunities, and we invite investors to seize the chance to unlock the country’s vast potential. As we lead the transformation of Nepal’s telecommunications landscape, we are fully committed to partnering with the government to drive digital evolution and open up boundless opportunities for the nation’s progress. This commitment reflects Ncell’s steadfast dedication to supporting Nepal’s economic development as the country’s largest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

The future of Nepal holds immense promise, with key sectors such as ICT, tourism and hospitality, and hydropower poised for growth and development. These industries not only have the potential to drive substantial economic growth but also offer numerous opportunities for both local businesses and foreign investors. The key to achieving this transformation lies in the government’s commitment to updating and adapting policies, in alignment with global standards. Only through this strategic action can Nepal realize its position as a leading destination for investment and a hub for technological and economic progress.

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